IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.1	#62
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	74.4	#51
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.8	#59

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.3	#67

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.8%	0.9%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	2.2%	2.4%	0.3%
Top 4 Seed	7.0%	7.6%	1.2%
Top 6 Seed	14.0%	15.0%	3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	32.1%	34.0%	13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	30.7%	32.5%	12.5%
Average Seed	7.2	7.2	8.5

.500 or above	42.6%	45.0%	18.8%
.500 or above in Conference	34.3%	35.8%	18.8%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.2%	0.4%
Last Place in Conference	11.7%	10.6%	22.7%

First Four	4.0%	4.1%	2.7%
First Round	30.2%	32.0%	12.3%
Second Round	18.3%	19.4%	7.2%
Sweet Sixteen	8.1%	8.7%	2.7%
Elite Eight	3.5%	3.8%	0.8%
Final Four	1.5%	1.6%	0.3%
Championship Game	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	2 - 7	2 - 7
Quad 1b	2 - 3	4 - 10
Quad 2	4 - 3	8 - 13
Quad 3	3 - 1	10 - 14
Quad 4	2 - 0	12 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	190	Drexel	W	83-69	91%
Nov 28, 2020	276	VMI	W	86-67	96%
Dec 02, 2020	99	Virginia Commonwealth	W	77-70	74%
Dec 06, 2020	44	Seton Hall	W	79-77	56%
Dec 08, 2020	56	@ Virginia Tech	L	69-72	38%
Dec 13, 2020	19	@ Michigan	L	72-80	24%
Dec 23, 2020	13	Illinois	L	72-75	41%
Dec 30, 2020	24	Indiana	L	74-75	46%
Jan 03, 2021	8	Wisconsin	L	67-71	38%
Jan 06, 2021	17	@ Ohio St.	L	69-77	24%
Jan 09, 2021	19	Michigan	L	75-77	43%
Jan 12, 2021	33	Rutgers	W	73-72	52%
Jan 17, 2021	28	@ Purdue	L	67-73	30%
Jan 20, 2021	13	@ Illinois	L	69-78	22%
Jan 23, 2021	80	Northwestern	W	75-70	67%
Jan 30, 2021	113	@ Nebraska	W	82-80	57%
Feb 02, 2021	8	@ Wisconsin	L	64-74	21%
Feb 05, 2021	39	Maryland	W	74-73	54%
Feb 09, 2021	10	@ Michigan St.	L	73-82	22%
Feb 14, 2021	113	Nebraska	W	85-77	75%
Feb 18, 2021	17	Ohio St.	L	72-74	43%
Feb 21, 2021	9	@ Iowa	L	76-86	22%
Feb 26, 2021	28	Purdue	L	70-71	49%
Mar 03, 2021	37	Minnesota	W	74-73	52%
Mar 07, 2021	39	@ Maryland	L	71-76	35%
Projected Record						12 - 13	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.5	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.1	2nd
3rd												0.0	0.6	1.6	1.3	0.3	0.1						3.8	3rd
4th											0.0	0.7	2.1	1.6	0.4	0.0							4.8	4th
5th										0.0	0.5	2.3	2.2	0.6	0.1								5.7	5th
6th									0.0	0.3	2.1	2.7	1.0	0.1	0.0								6.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.2	1.8	3.8	1.7	0.2										7.6	7th
8th								0.2	1.5	4.0	2.2	0.4	0.0										8.2	8th
9th						0.0	0.2	1.3	4.1	3.3	0.7	0.0											9.6	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	1.3	3.9	3.8	1.1	0.0												10.3	10th
11th				0.0	0.2	1.3	3.9	3.9	1.3	0.1													10.7	11th
12th			0.0	0.4	1.6	3.6	3.8	1.4	0.1	0.0													11.0	12th
13th		0.0	0.6	2.0	3.3	2.7	1.0	0.2	0.0														9.8	13th
14th	0.3	1.0	1.9	2.1	1.5	0.4	0.0	0.0															7.2	14th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.5	4.5	6.6	8.2	10.2	10.8	11.0	10.6	9.3	7.7	6.2	4.4	2.9	1.7	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	95.1%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	87.7%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
16-4	49.8%	0.5		0.3	0.2	0.0
15-5	27.7%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	5.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		1.2	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%							0.0
19-1	0.1%		100.0%	35.3%	64.7%	1.1		0.1	0.0																	100.0%
18-2	0.2%		100.0%	43.8%	56.2%	1.4		0.1	0.1	0.0																100.0%
17-3	0.6%		100.0%	24.8%	75.2%	1.9		0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-4	1.1%		100.0%	18.3%	81.7%	2.5		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1		0.0												100.0%
15-5	1.7%		100.0%	15.6%	84.4%	3.2		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
14-6	2.9%		99.5%	9.3%	90.1%	4.3		0.0	0.3	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0						0.0		99.4%
13-7	4.4%		99.5%	8.3%	91.3%	5.6			0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.0		99.5%
12-8	6.2%		97.6%	4.2%	93.4%	6.9			0.0	0.2	0.3	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.1		97.5%
11-9	7.7%		86.0%	3.2%	82.8%	8.4				0.0	0.0	0.4	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0			1.1		85.6%
10-10	9.3%		58.6%	1.4%	57.2%	10.0					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.9	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0			3.9		58.0%
9-11	10.6%		23.5%	0.6%	22.9%	11.3					0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0		8.1		23.0%
8-12	11.0%		4.2%	0.4%	3.8%	12.2							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0		10.5		3.8%
7-13	10.8%		0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	11.6									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				10.7		0.1%
6-14	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		12.0													0.0					10.2
5-15	8.2%																							8.2
4-16	6.6%																							6.6
3-17	4.5%																							4.5
2-18	2.5%																							2.5
1-19	1.1%																							1.1
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		32.1%	2.1%	30.0%	7.2		0.8	1.3	2.4	2.5	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.4	2.7	2.2	2.6	2.5	1.0	0.3	0.0		67.9		30.7%